Introduction
The house edge is defined as the ratio of the average loss to the initial bet. In some games the beginning wager is not necessarily the ending wager. For example in blackjack, let it ride, and Caribbean stud poker, the player may increase their bet when the odds favor doing so. In these cases the additional money wagered is not figured into the denominator for the purpose of determining the house edge, thus increasing the measure of risk. For games like Ultimate Texas Hold 'Em and Crazy 4 Poker, where there are two required initial wagers, the house edge is based on one of them only. House edge figures are based on optimal or near-optimal player strategy.
The table below shows the house edge of most popular casino games and bets.
Casino Game House Edge
- Worst Odds In Casino Raise the capital you want to start out a casino by presenting your marketing strategy to traders like banks or non-public buyers. The objective is to promote a enterprise that has the potential to broaden, due to this fact making it act as a worthwhile funding.
- I've listed the best and worst casino odds you will encounter while gambling. However, know that betting with the best odds is still gambling and you still might end up losing money at the end of the night. My final advice would be to play responsibly and set a playing budget that you can afford to lose.
Game | Bet/Rules | House Edge | Standard Deviation |
---|---|---|---|
Baccarat | Banker | 1.06% | 0.93 |
Player | 1.24% | 0.95 | |
Tie | 14.36% | 2.64 | |
Big Six | $1 | 11.11% | 0.99 |
$2 | 16.67% | 1.34 | |
$5 | 22.22% | 2.02 | |
$10 | 18.52% | 2.88 | |
$20 | 22.22% | 3.97 | |
Joker/Logo | 24.07% | 5.35 | |
Bonus Six | No insurance | 10.42% | 5.79 |
With insurance | 23.83% | 6.51 | |
Blackjacka | Liberal Vegas rules | 0.28% | 1.15 |
Caribbean Stud Poker | 5.22% | 2.24 | |
Casino War | Go to war on ties | 2.88% | 1.05 |
Surrender on ties | 3.70% | 0.94 | |
Bet on tie | 18.65% | 8.32 | |
Catch a Wave | 0.50% | d | |
Craps | Pass/Come | 1.41% | 1.00 |
Don't pass/don't come | 1.36% | 0.99 | |
Odds — 4 or 10 | 0.00% | 1.41 | |
Odds — 5 or 9 | 0.00% | 1.22 | |
Odds — 6 or 8 | 0.00% | 1.10 | |
Field (2:1 on 12) | 5.56% | 1.08 | |
Field (3:1 on 12) | 2.78% | 1.14 | |
Any craps | 11.11% | 2.51 | |
Big 6,8 | 9.09% | 1.00 | |
Hard 4,10 | 11.11% | 2.51 | |
Hard 6,8 | 9.09% | 2.87 | |
Place 6,8 | 1.52% | 1.08 | |
Place 5,9 | 4.00% | 1.18 | |
Place 4,10 | 6.67% | 1.32 | |
Place (to lose) 4,10 | 3.03% | 0.69 | |
2, 12, & all hard hops | 13.89% | 5.09 | |
3, 11, & all easy hops | 11.11% | 3.66 | |
Any seven | 16.67% | 1.86 | |
Crazy 4 Poker | Ante | 3.42%* | 3.13* |
Double Down Stud | 2.67% | 2.97 | |
Heads Up Hold 'Em | Blind pay table #1 (500-50-10-8-5) | 2.36% | 4.56 |
Keno | 25%-29% | 1.30-46.04 | |
Let it Ride | 3.51% | 5.17 | |
Pai Gowc | 1.50% | 0.75 | |
Pai Gow Pokerc | 1.46% | 0.75 | |
Pick 'em Poker | 0% - 10% | 3.87 | |
Red Dog | Six decks | 2.80% | 1.60 |
Roulette | Single Zero | 2.70% | e |
Double Zero | 5.26% | e | |
Sic-Bo | 2.78%-33.33% | e | |
Slot Machines | 2%-15%f | 8.74g | |
Spanish 21 | Dealer hits soft 17 | 0.76% | d |
Dealer stands on soft 17 | 0.40% | d | |
Super Fun 21 | 0.94% | d | |
Three Card Poker | Pairplus | 7.28% | 2.85 |
Ante & play | 3.37% | 1.64 | |
Ultimate Texas Hold 'Em | Ante | 2.19% | 4.94 |
Video Poker | Jacks or Better (Full Pay) | 0.46% | 4.42 |
Wild Hold 'em Fold 'em | 6.86% | d |
Notes
a | Liberal Vegas Strip rules: Dealer stands on soft 17, player may double on any two cards, player may double after splitting, resplit aces, late surrender. |
b | Las Vegas single deck rules are dealer hits on soft 17, player may double on any two cards, player may not double after splitting, one card to split aces, no surrender. |
c | Assuming player plays the house way, playing one on one against dealer, and half of bets made are as banker. |
d | Yet to be determined. |
e | Standard deviation depends on bet made. |
f | Slot machine range is based on available returns from a major manufacturer |
g | Slot machine standard deviation based on just one machine. While this can vary, the standard deviation on slot machines are very high. |
Guide to House Edge
Surely that would be at the top of the list for the worst bets you can make in a casino. So I started writing, but then it dawned on me that something was amiss. In Keno, playing every game, maybe four games an hour at some casinos, betting one dollar, you lose about a dollar per hour. Now if we take a good bet like mini-baccarat's 'bank.
The reason that the house edge is relative to the original wager, not the average wager, is that it makes it easier for the player to estimate how much they will lose. For example if a player knows the house edge in blackjack is 0.6% he can assume that for every $10 wager original wager he makes he will lose 6 cents on the average. Most players are not going to know how much their average wager will be in games like blackjack relative to the original wager, thus any statistic based on the average wager would be difficult to apply to real life questions.
The conventional definition can be helpful for players determine how much it will cost them to play, given the information they already know. However the statistic is very biased as a measure of risk. In Caribbean stud poker, for example, the house edge is 5.22%, which is close to that of double zero roulette at 5.26%. However the ratio of average money lost to average money wagered in Caribbean stud is only 2.56%. The player only looking at the house edge may be indifferent between roulette and Caribbean stud poker, based only the house edge. If one wants to compare one game against another I believe it is better to look at the ratio of money lost to money wagered, which would show Caribbean stud poker to be a much better gamble than roulette.
Many other sources do not count ties in the house edge calculation, especially for the Don't Pass bet in craps and the banker and player bets in baccarat. The rationale is that if a bet isn't resolved then it should be ignored. I personally opt to include ties although I respect the other definition.
Element of Risk
For purposes of comparing one game to another I would like to propose a different measurement of risk, which I call the 'element of risk.' This measurement is defined as the average loss divided by total money bet. For bets in which the initial bet is always the final bet there would be no difference between this statistic and the house edge. Bets in which there is a difference are listed below.
Element of Risk
Game | Bet | House Edge | Element of Risk |
---|---|---|---|
Blackjack | Atlantic City rules | 0.43% | 0.38% |
Bonus 6 | No insurance | 10.42% | 5.41% |
Bonus 6 | With insurance | 23.83% | 6.42% |
Caribbean Stud Poker | 5.22% | 2.56% | |
Casino War | Go to war on ties | 2.88% | 2.68% |
Crazy 4 Poker | Standard rules | 3.42%* | 1.09% |
Heads Up Hold 'Em | Pay Table #1 (500-50-10-8-5) | 2.36% | 0.64% |
Double Down Stud | 2.67% | 2.13% | |
Let it Ride | 3.51% | 2.85% | |
Spanish 21 | Dealer hits soft 17 | 0.76% | 0.65% |
Spanish 21 | Dealer stands on soft 17 | 0.40% | 0.30% |
Three Card Poker | Ante & play | 3.37% | 2.01% |
Ultimate Texas Hold 'Em | 2.19%* | 0.53% | |
Wild Hold 'em Fold 'em | 6.86% | 3.23% |
Standard Deviation
The standard deviation is a measure of how volatile your bankroll will be playing a given game. This statistic is commonly used to calculate the probability that the end result of a session of a defined number of bets will be within certain bounds.
The standard deviation of the final result over n bets is the product of the standard deviation for one bet (see table) and the square root of the number of initial bets made in the session. This assumes that all bets made are of equal size. The probability that the session outcome will be within one standard deviation is 68.26%. The probability that the session outcome will be within two standard deviations is 95.46%. The probability that the session outcome will be within three standard deviations is 99.74%. The following table shows the probability that a session outcome will come within various numbers of standard deviations.
I realize that this explanation may not make much sense to someone who is not well versed in the basics of statistics. If this is the case I would recommend enriching yourself with a good introductory statistics book.
Standard Deviation
The standard deviation is a measure of how volatile your bankroll will be playing a given game. This statistic is commonly used to calculate the probability that the end result of a session of a defined number of bets will be within certain bounds.
The standard deviation of the final result over n bets is the product of the standard deviation for one bet (see table) and the square root of the number of initial bets made in the session. This assumes that all bets made are of equal size. The probability that the session outcome will be within one standard deviation is 68.26%. The probability that the session outcome will be within two standard deviations is 95.46%. The probability that the session outcome will be within three standard deviations is 99.74%. The following table shows the probability that a session outcome will come within various numbers of standard deviations.
I realize that this explanation may not make much sense to someone who is not well versed in the basics of statistics. If this is the case I would recommend enriching yourself with a good introductory statistics book.
Standard Deviation
Number | Probability |
---|---|
0.25 | 0.1974 |
0.50 | 0.3830 |
0.75 | 0.5468 |
1.00 | 0.6826 |
1.25 | 0.7888 |
1.50 | 0.8664 |
1.75 | 0.9198 |
2.00 | 0.9546 |
2.25 | 0.9756 |
2.50 | 0.9876 |
2.75 | 0.9940 |
3.00 | 0.9974 |
3.25 | 0.9988 |
3.50 | 0.9996 |
3.75 | 0.9998 |
Hold
Although I do not mention hold percentages on my site the term is worth defining because it comes up a lot. The hold percentage is the ratio of chips the casino keeps to the total chips sold. This is generally measured over an entire shift. For example if blackjack table x takes in $1000 in the drop box and of the $1000 in chips sold the table keeps $300 of them (players walked away with the other $700) then the game's hold is 30%. If every player loses their entire purchase of chips then the hold will be 100%. It is possible for the hold to exceed 100% if players carry to the table chips purchased at another table. A mathematician alone can not determine the hold because it depends on how long the player will sit at the table and the same money circulates back and forth. There is a lot of confusion between the house edge and hold, especially among casino personnel.
Hands per Hour, House Edge for Comp Purposes
The following table shows the average hands per hour and the house edge for comp purposes various games. The house edge figures are higher than those above, because the above figures assume optimal strategy, and those below reflect player errors and average type of bet made. This table was given to me anonymously by an executive with a major Strip casino and is used for rating players.
Hands per Hour and Average House Edge
Games | Hands/Hour | House Edge |
---|---|---|
Baccarat | 72 | 1.2% |
Blackjack | 70 | 0.75% |
Big Six | 10 | 15.53% |
Craps | 48 | 1.58% |
Car. Stud | 50 | 1.46% |
Let It Ride | 52 | 2.4% |
Mini-Baccarat | 72 | 1.2% |
Midi-Baccarat | 72 | 1.2% |
Pai Gow | 30 | 1.65% |
Pai Pow Poker | 34 | 1.96% |
Roulette | 38 | 5.26% |
Single 0 Roulette | 35 | 2.59% |
Casino War | 65 | 2.87% |
Spanish 21 | 75 | 2.2% |
Sic Bo | 45 | 8% |
3 Way Action | 70 | 2.2% |
Footnotes
* — House edge based on Ante bet only as opposed to all mandatory wagers (for example the Blind in Ultimate Texas Hold 'Em and the Super Bonus in Crazy 4 Poker.
Translation
A Spanish translation of this page is available at www.eldropbox.com.
Written by: Michael Shackleford
Knowing which is which can help make you a winner
by Frank Scoblete
This article began innocently enough. My editor, Len Butcher, sent me the following email: 'Frank, I need a piece on the top 10 best and worst casino bets for the December Casino Player issue. Deadline is October 16. Thanks, Len.'
This should be a snap, I thought. I can write this in my sleep. I immediately thought of the worst game, Keno, where the house edge is about 25 percent—which means you lose about 25 cents for every dollar you bet at the game. Surely that would be at the top of the list for the worst bets you can make in a casino.
So I started writing, but then it dawned on me that something was amiss. In Keno, playing every game, maybe four games an hour at some casinos, betting one dollar, you lose about a dollar per hour. Now if we take a good bet like mini-baccarat's 'bank' bet (which has a 1.06 percent house edge) and you bet $10 per decision, and play 150 decisions (which is not unheard of), then you'd lose a whopping $15.90.
So which is the worse bet? In terms of the house edge, it's Keno. But speed-wise, mini-baccarat is worse. Then I realized there's another consideration. Some games are just not found in a lot of casinos. Some of the worst bets in all of casino history are at Sic Bo—where the house edge can soar into the 40 percent range. Should I count these bets among the worst, even if you might never see a Sic Bo game in your life?
And what about video poker, where there are so many machines that the entire article could be about these games?
To keep things simple, in this article I will use the 'house edge' as the primary criteria of judgment, but I will mention the speed of the games as well, to give you a more complete picture. And I will limit my list to games that are found in almost all casinos. There are even worse bets out there, but they're games that haven't made it to most casinos (thankfully).
As for video poker, I'm not mentioning it among the 'best bets' although some video poker machines can be positive expectation games if played properly, and others have house edges of between one-half and one percent or so. I'm limiting this list to table games; finding and playing the right video poker machines is another story unto itself. And, finally, I'm not going to bother mentioning the various 'side bets' you'll occasionally see at the tables. These bets come in many different forms, but they're almost always a bad idea. Avoid them.
With that said, here we go—the worst first.
The 10 Worst Bets
1. Keno
Yes, this is probably the worst bet you will find in most casinos. The average house edge hovers around 25 percent, which is better than state lotteries, but that's not saying much. Still, the pace of the game is slow and if you only make one bet per game you won't lose much money.
2. Any Seven (Craps)
This is a one-roll bet that the next number rolled will be a seven. The house edge is a monstrous 16.67 percent. If you make this bet on every roll, even if you only wager a measly dollar, you can lose about $20 per hour!
3. Progressive Slot Machines
Yes, those gigantic multi-million dollar jackpots sure are tempting, but progressive games are the very worst machines in the casino—no matter what the denomination is. The house edge ranges from 12 to 17 percent. This means you lose between $12 and $17 for every $100 you wager in the long run. Making the situation even more brutal is the fact that people tend to play these games very fast. How much can a $1 slot player lose on an inter-casino linked progressive? Upwards of almost $400 per hour. Yikes!
4. Tie Bet at Baccarat
This bet comes with a house edge of around 14 percent. With traditional baccarat, played in the high roller rooms, the game is relatively slow; at mini-baccarat, however, the speed of the game is very fast. This bet is bad in both games.
5. 2 and 12 (Craps)
Snake eyes (2) and boxcars (12) have house edges of 13.89 percent. These are one-roll bets for the unwary and unwise craps player.
6. Whirl or World (Craps)
This is a multiple number (2, 3, 7, 11, 12), one-roll bet that has a house edge of 13.33 percent. Steer clear of this one.
7. The Horn (Craps)
Another multiple number (2, 3, 11, 12) one-roll bet that comes in with a house edge of 12.5 percent. There is a saying, 'See a horn, bet a horn.' The real saying should be, 'You have to be an idiot to bet the horn.'
8. 3 and 11; Hard 4 and Hard 10; Any Craps (Craps)
Ironically, the 11 has an 11.11 percent house edge, as do the rest of these bets. These bets should hold no interest for you, since making them on each and every roll will cost you $11.11 per $100 wagered.
9. 5-Cent Slot Machines
The low denomination, non-progressive slot machines also have high house edges—around 10 to 12 percent—and most people play them fast, causing their losses to add up quickly.
10. Hard 6 and Hard 8 (Craps)
At this point we've left the double-digit house edges behind us, but these two bets are still pretty bad with a house edge of 9.09 percent. They are not active on every roll, which helps a little.
The 10 Best Bets
1. The Pass, Don't Pass, Come, Don't Come with Odds (Craps)
Some casinos in America are still offering craps games with 100X, 20X, 10X and 5X odds. Here, the house edge is a small fraction of a percent on these games if you utilize the odds bets. Without odds, the house edge on the above bets is about 1.4 percent—still very good. Also, not every roll impacts you, so that's a good thing too. Most players will be on about 50 percent of the decisions betting this way.
2. Blackjack Basic Strategy
If the game you are playing is a traditional blackjack game with the house paying 3 to 2 for blackjacks, with the dealer standing on soft 17, and with the right to double on any first two cards, split and double after splits, the casino will have about a half percent house edge. That means you lose about 50 cents for every $100 wagered—a very good bet indeed. Blackjack is a moderately fast game, but with such a low house edge you still have a very good shot at winning some money on any given session.
3. The Bank Bet at Baccarat
The house edge at this bet is 1.06 percent. Remember that traditional, high-roller room baccarat, where the players deal the cards, is a slow game. Mini-baccarat is a fast game.
4. The Player Bet at Baccarat
The house edge on this bet is a mere 1.24 percent. See #3.
5. Blackjack Pays 6 to 5 for Natural (Basic Strategy)
This new game is three times worse than traditional blackjack, as it pays only $12 to $10 for a blackjack as opposed to $15 to $10. Usually these games also have the dealers hitting their soft 17s. The house edge on these games is around 1.5 percent, depending on the casino's rules.
6. Place the 6 or 8 (Craps)
This bet must be made in multiples of $6. It pays $7 on a win since the house has a 6 to 5 edge on the bet. The house edge is 1.52 percent and the bet is active on 11 of 36 decisions, which means most of the time you will not have your money acted upon.
Best Casino Odds Game
7. Spanish 21 (Basic Strategy)
In this variation of blackjack, the 10-spot cards are removed but there are all sorts of special awards for premium hands built into the rules. With the proper basic strategy, the house edge is around 1.8 percent, give or take, depending on rules of the casino.
8. Three Card Poker
There are two games in one here. The main game of ante and wager has about a 2 percent house edge. The secondary game, called Pair Plus, has about a 2.3 percent house edge. The game is relatively fast, so you might want to sit out some hands every so often.
Odds Of Casino Games
9. Lay the 4 and 10 (Craps)
Here, you are betting that the 7 will appear before the 4 or 10. The house edge is 2.44 percent.
10. Caribbean Stud and Pai Gow Poker
Two of the first 'carnival' card games are still going strong in casinos. The house edge is about 2.5 percent if you play your hands properly. These are relatively slow games.
So there you have it—the worst bets and the best bets you'll encounter during your next trip to the casino. Good luck, and play smart.
Worst Casino In The World
Frank Scoblete is the #1 best-selling gaming author in America. He is executive director of the Golden Touch advantage-play seminars in craps and blackjack. His websites are www.goldentouchcraps.com, www.goldentouchblackjack.com and www.scoblete.com in association with CasinoCityTimes.com. His recent books are The Golden Touch Dice Control Revolution! and The Golden Touch Blackjack Revolution! His new DVD is Golden Touch Dice Control DVD showing over 200 controlled dice throws – many in slow motion. For a free brochure or to order Frank's products, call 1-800-944-0406.